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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County Win | 27.6% | 37.0% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49.5% | 52.6% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Form, fitness, fine margins. Newport County and Rochdale meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
A League Two fixture between Newport County and Rochdale. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Newport County will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Rochdale travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Rochdale at just 44%. With the draw at 29%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Rochdale, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Newport County are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Rochdale manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 52% of Newport County's home games and 100% of Rochdale's away matches.
Rochdale have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (2.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Newport County Win | @3.00 | 27.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 28.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Rochdale Win | @2.30 | 43.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.00 | 49.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.75 | 50.5% | William Hill |
Our model makes Rochdale the favourite with a 43.9% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Newport County @ 3.00, Draw @ 3.10, Rochdale @ 2.30. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Newport County vs Rochdale kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 12:30 in the League Two.
Our top prediction is Rochdale to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.