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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield FC Win | 52.6% | 61.7% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50.2% | 54.6% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Three points on the line and a story to write. Chesterfield FC host Fleetwood Town.
Chesterfield FC welcome Fleetwood Town in the League Two. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Chesterfield FC will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Fleetwood Town travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Chesterfield FC edge it at 53% but a draw (25%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Chesterfield FC average 1.1 goals per game and Fleetwood Town manage 1.3. Combined that's just 2.4. We make it only 50% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 57% of Chesterfield FC's home games and 52% of Fleetwood Town's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Chesterfield FC do it the hard way: only 1.1 a game up top, but a mean 0.6 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Chesterfield FC Win | @1.73 | 52.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.50 | 24.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Fleetwood Town Win | @4.50 | 22.7% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.91 | 50.2% | Grosvenor |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.81 | 49.8% | Grosvenor |
Our model makes Chesterfield FC the favourite with a 52.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Chesterfield FC @ 1.73, Draw @ 3.50, Fleetwood Town @ 4.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Chesterfield FC vs Fleetwood Town kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League Two.
Our top prediction is Chesterfield FC to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.