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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham Athletic Win | 34.6% | 44.4% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47.3% | 51.3% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
The key duel: Port Vale's attack against Oldham Athletic's back line.
Oldham Athletic take on Port Vale in the League Two. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
D. Cole has been Port Vale's main threat, with 6 goals and 2 assists in 19 appearances, averaging 0.84 shots on target per game.
Too close to call with any conviction. Port Vale edge it at 38% but a draw (27%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Oldham Athletic average 1.7 goals per game and Port Vale manage 0.8. Combined that's just 2.5. We make it only 47% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 43% of Oldham Athletic's home games and 35% of Port Vale's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed. Oldham Athletic keep the other side out in 41% of games and Port Vale fail to score 52% of the time. there's a real chance one side keeps it tight at the back.
Port Vale travel here with relegation breathing down their neck. At 22nd, they can't afford to drop many more points.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Oldham Athletic Win | @2.38 | 34.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 27.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Port Vale Win | @2.75 | 37.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.04 | 47.3% | Casumo |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.71 | 52.7% | Casumo |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Port Vale the favourite with a 37.9% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Oldham Athletic @ 2.38, Draw @ 3.25, Port Vale @ 2.75. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Oldham Athletic vs Port Vale kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 12:30 in the League Two.
Our top prediction is Port Vale to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.