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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42.2% | 54.6% | 12 pts under |
| Northampton Town Win | 40.8% | 48.8% | 8 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Northampton Town welcome Swindon Town.
Northampton Town welcome Swindon Town in the League Two. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
A. Drinan has been Swindon Town's main threat, with 22 goals and 5 assists in 40 appearances, averaging 1.10 shots on target per game.
A razor-thin margin: Northampton Town at 41%, but the draw sits at 25%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Northampton Town average 0.8 goals per game and Swindon Town manage 1.0. Combined that's just 1.8. We make it only 42% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams score in 52% of Northampton Town's home games and 52% of Swindon Town's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Northampton Town need points desperately. Sitting 24th in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Northampton Town Win | @2.10 | 40.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 24.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Swindon Town Win | @3.10 | 34.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.89 | 42.2% | Grosvenor |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.82 | 57.8% | Grosvenor |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Northampton Town the favourite with a 40.8% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Northampton Town @ 2.10, Draw @ 3.25, Swindon Town @ 3.10. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Northampton Town vs Swindon Town kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League Two.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Northampton Town to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.