Get the model's verified verdict on Crawley Town (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 27.3% | 32.3% | 5 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49.0% | 53.2% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
The key duel: Crawley Town's attack against Crewe Alexandra's back line.
Crawley Town take on Crewe Alexandra in the League Two. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
H. McKirdy has been Crawley Town's spearhead, with 8 goals and 3 assists in 32 appearances, averaging 0.94 shots on target per game. Whoever leads Crewe Alexandra's line will have a job on against that profile.
A razor-thin margin: Crawley Town at 48%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Our model spots value here: Crawley Town to win at @2.45 (our model: 48%, bookmakers imply: 41%). A 8% edge over the market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Crawley Town average 1.0 goals per game and Crewe Alexandra manage 0.7. Combined that's just 1.7. We make it only 49% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 57% of Crawley Town's home games and 57% of Crewe Alexandra's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Crawley Town Win | @2.45 | 48.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.20 | 27.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Crewe Alexandra Win | @2.75 | 39.7% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 49.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.75 | 51.0% | William Hill |
Our model makes Crawley Town the favourite with a 48.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Crawley Town @ 2.45, Draw @ 3.20, Crewe Alexandra @ 2.75. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Crawley Town vs Crewe Alexandra kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League Two.
Our top prediction is Crawley Town to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.