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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham Win | 44.3% | 50.8% | 6 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49.0% | 53.2% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Gillingham welcome Walsall.
Gillingham take on Walsall in the League Two. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
B. Dack has been Gillingham's spearhead, with 7 goals and 1 assists in 41 appearances, averaging 0.56 shots on target per game. D. Kanu has been Walsall's main threat, with 15 goals and 2 assists in 40 appearances, averaging 1.13 shots on target per game.
A razor-thin margin: Gillingham at 44%, but the draw sits at 28%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Gillingham average 1.3 goals per game and Walsall manage 1.2. Combined that's just 2.5. We make it only 49% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 65% of Gillingham's home games and 57% of Walsall's away matches.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Gillingham Win | @2.10 | 44.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 28.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Walsall Win | @3.10 | 27.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 49.0% | Grosvenor |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.77 | 51.0% | Grosvenor |
Our model makes Gillingham the favourite with a 44.3% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Gillingham @ 2.10, Draw @ 3.25, Walsall @ 3.10. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Gillingham vs Walsall kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League Two.
Our top prediction is Gillingham to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.