New York City FC vs Nashville SC Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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New York City FC have lost their last two; Nashville SC have won three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this MLS tie.
N. Fernández Mercau has been New York City FC's spearhead, with 13 goals and 3 assists in 19 appearances, averaging 1.53 shots on target per game. S. Surridge has been Nashville SC's main threat, with 12 goals and 0 assists in 14 appearances, averaging 1.36 shots on target per game.
Both sets of fans can dream here: this is two in-form sides on a collision course. New York City FC come in on a L-L-D-W-W run, Nashville SC have gone W-W-D-L-W, and neither will fear the other. When form meets form like this, something has to give, and whichever way it breaks, it should be a proper occasion. New York City FC's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. A concern for Nashville SC: they're giving up chances worth 2.1 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.7 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
New York City FC create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Nashville SC create 1.8 (giving up 1.7) for a balance of +0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Nashville SC's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.1 a game over their last 5 vs 1.7 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
New York City FC average 1.4 goals per game and Nashville SC manage 1.6. Combined that's just 3.0. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. New York City FC and Nashville SC together create chances worth 3.0 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
In the last 9 meetings: New York City FC have won 3, Nashville SC 4, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.7 goals per game. 6 of the last 9 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Nashville SC 2-1 New York City FC, New York City FC 2-1 Nashville SC, Nashville SC 2-2 New York City FC.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | New York City FC Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Nashville SC Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Full New York City FC vs Nashville SC head-to-head history →
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
New York City FC vs Nashville SC kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.