01The read
Analysing Ipswich vs Leicester: Who Wins?
The model makes Ipswich 55% favourites here. Leicester carry the 23% upset.
Ipswich are unbeaten in their last five; Leicester have taken 8 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this EFL Cup tie.
Key facts
🔥
Chances Flowing
Ipswich creating chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5. High-quality openings at will
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 67% of Ipswich's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 59% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Interestingly, Ipswich look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.9 a game, but they're only converting 1.8 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. Leicester are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.7 against 1.0 actual goals). They look due a few more.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Ipswich create chances worth 1.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.8 a game on the balance. Leicester create 1.7 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of +0.6. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Ipswich should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.9 a game but they're only getting 1.8 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful. Leicester are creating chances worth 1.7 a game but only finishing 1.0. the underlying performance is better than the results show.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Ipswich are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Leicester manage 1.0 (1.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 59%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 51%. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Ipswich create chances worth 1.9 a game and Leicester 1.7. Combined, that's 3.6 a game from open play alone.
▸ Team news & context
Ipswich are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Leicester, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
In the last 10 meetings: Ipswich have won 1, Leicester 5, with 4 draws. These fixtures average 2.7 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Ipswich 1-1 Leicester, Leicester 3-1 Ipswich, Leicester 2-0 Ipswich.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Ipswich HT
2.10
-
Draw HT
2.40
-
Leicester HT
4.50
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Ipswich · xG
For: 1.91/g
Against: 1.13/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.31/g, value possible
📊 Leicester · xG
For: 1.72/g
Against: 1.10/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.72/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Ipswich vs Leicester Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Ipswich Win |
@1.60
|
54.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.90
|
22.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Leicester Win |
@4.50
|
22.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.67
|
50.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.10
|
49.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.65
|
59.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.26
|
40.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.62
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Ipswich vs Leicester Head to Head
1 Home Wins
4 Draws
5 Away Wins
2.7
Avg Goals
6/10
BTTS
4/10
Over 2.5
2026-03-07
Ipswich 1-1 Leicester
2025-12-13
Ipswich 1-3 Leicester
2025-05-18
Ipswich 0-2 Leicester
2024-11-02
Ipswich 1-1 Leicester
2024-01-22
Ipswich 1-1 Leicester
2023-12-26
Ipswich 1-1 Leicester
2014-02-22
Ipswich 0-3 Leicester
2013-11-23
Ipswich 1-2 Leicester
2013-03-02
Ipswich 1-0 Leicester
2012-11-17
Ipswich 0-6 Leicester
Full Ipswich vs Leicester head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
8.9%
3-0
4.2%
3-1
4.2%
3-2
2.1%
4-0
1.5%
4-1
1.5%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 2 first half goals
84%
@1.19
Marathon Bet
-
Under 12.5 corners
84%
@1.30
Superbet
-
Under 4 goals
83%
@1.24
BetVictor
-
Over 8 corners
83%
@1.21
1xBet
-
Ipswich under 7.5 corners
83%
@1.42
Superbet
-
Leicester over 3 corners
82%
@1.22
1xBet
-
Leicester under 5.5 corners
81%
@1.26
1xBet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
80%
@1.34
Betano
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
80%
@1.29
Betano
-
Leicester under 1.5 goals
79%
@1.31
Marathon Bet
-
Over 2 goals
79%
@1.29
BetVictor
-
Ipswich under 7 corners
78%
@1.28
1xBet
Build a slip from these markets →