03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Fiorentina Win |
53.5% |
63.3% |
10 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
46.5% |
56.2% |
10 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
52.4% |
55.9% |
3 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🎯
Both teams scored in 63% of Fiorentina home games
🚨
Frosinone have failed to score in 100% of matches
01The read
Analysing Fiorentina vs Frosinone: Who Wins?
Frosinone have drawn a blank in 100% of their games this season. Fiorentina's defence will fancy that.
Fiorentina slight edge (54%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
Fiorentina have taken six points from their last five; Frosinone have taken 8 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Serie A tie.
Our verdict
Marginal call: Fiorentina at just 54%. With the draw at 25%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Fiorentina, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
😶
Goal Shy
Frosinone fail to score in 100% of their games. They go missing in front of goal far too often
🤝
Draw Merchants
3 draws from 6 meetings. Stalemates are the pattern here
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 67% of Frosinone's matches this season
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Fiorentina are scoring 0.9 a game (0.9 of those at home) and Frosinone manage 1.7 (1.7 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 52%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 47%.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 63% of Fiorentina's home games and 67% of Frosinone's away matches.
▸ Team news & context
In the last 6 meetings: Fiorentina have won 2, Frosinone 1, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.7 goals per game. 2 of the last 6 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Fiorentina 5-1 Frosinone, Frosinone 1-1 Fiorentina, Fiorentina 0-1 Frosinone, Frosinone 1-1 Fiorentina.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
If you like Fiorentina but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.17 , which pays out if Fiorentina win or draw, covers 78% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (6%).
First Half Result
-
Fiorentina HT
2.15
-
Draw HT
2.25
-
Frosinone HT
5.00
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Fiorentina · xG
For: 1.05/g
Against: 1.33/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Fiorentina vs Frosinone Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Fiorentina Win |
@1.62
|
53.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.80
|
24.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Frosinone Win |
@5.00
|
21.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.85
|
46.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.85
|
53.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.91
|
52.4% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.03
|
47.6% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.28
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.90
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.38
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Fiorentina vs Frosinone Team Stats
Fiorentina
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Frosinone Calcio
Position
16
Played
1
Record
0W-0D-1L
Goals F/A
0/1
Avg Goals Scored
1.67
Overall Form
WLDDW
Away Record
0W-0D-0L
Fiorentina vs Frosinone Head to Head
2 Home Wins
3 Draws
1 Away Wins
2.7
Avg Goals
4/6
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2024-02-11
Fiorentina 5-1 Frosinone
2023-09-28
Fiorentina 1-1 Frosinone
2019-04-07
Fiorentina 0-1 Frosinone
2018-11-09
Fiorentina 1-1 Frosinone
2016-03-20
Fiorentina 0-0 Frosinone
2015-11-01
Fiorentina 4-1 Frosinone
Full Fiorentina vs Frosinone head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
9.7%
2-1
6.0%
2-0
4.5%
3-1
1.9%
3-0
1.4%
3-2
1.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Fiorentina or Frosinone (double chance)
83%
@1.27
1xBet
-
Frosinone under 1.5 goals
82%
@1.28
1xBet
-
Fiorentina under 7.5 corners
82%
@1.22
Unibet
-
Fiorentina over 1 goals
81%
@1.23
Marathon Bet
-
Over 1.5 goals
81%
@1.29
Betano
-
Frosinone under 5.5 corners
81%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Fiorentina over 3.5 corners
79%
@1.27
Unibet
-
Under 11.5 corners
78%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Fiorentina under 2.5 goals
78%
@1.33
Betano
-
Over 7.5 corners
77%
@1.32
Unibet
-
Under 2 second half goals
76%
@1.32
Marathon Bet
-
Under 3.5 goals
75%
@1.38
Pinnacle
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