Lazio vs Genoa Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
Get the model's verified verdict on Lazio (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Lazio have taken 7 points from their last five; Genoa are winless in their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Serie A tie.
The gap in chance quality is clear: Lazio come out at +0.1 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.4. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Lazio create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Genoa create 1.0 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of -0.4. The underlying numbers clearly favour Lazio. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Lazio average 1.4 goals per game and Genoa manage 0.5. Combined that's just 1.9. We make it only 8% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring looks unlikely (just 29%). Lazio shut the door in 39% of their games and Genoa draw a blank in 39% of theirs, so don't be surprised if one side keeps it tight at the back.
Both teams score in 42% of Lazio's home games and 58% of Genoa's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%) and 0-1 (11%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Lazio Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Genoa Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Lazio vs Genoa kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 19:45 in the Serie A.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.