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Cardiff 32%, the draw 28%, Norwich 40%. That's the shape of this one.
Cardiff have taken 7 points from their last four; Norwich have taken four points from their last four. The momentum is with the hosts going into this EFL Cup tie.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Cardiff are scoring 3.3 a game (3.3 of those at home) and Norwich manage 1.8 (1.8 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 51%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 51%.
Cardiff are all-out attack: 3.3 goals a game, but they leak 2.3 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Norwich, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
In the last 10 meetings: Cardiff have won 3, Norwich 7, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 3.3 goals per game. 6 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Norwich 4-2 Cardiff, Cardiff 2-1 Norwich, Norwich 4-1 Cardiff.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Cardiff Win | @2.50 | 31.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 27.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Norwich Win | @2.50 | 40.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.70 | 50.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.05 | 49.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.90 | 51.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.93 | 48.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.35 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Norwich the favourite with a 40.2% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Cardiff @ 2.50, Draw @ 3.25, Norwich @ 2.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Cardiff vs Norwich kicks off on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 19:00 in the EFL Cup.