Shots on Target Acca
For Saturday 29 August
We rank every named starter across today's fixtures by their 1+ and 2+ shots-on-target probability, then pick the top 5 across the day.
Today's Picks
N. Ibáñez averages 2.20 SoT/match (5 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game → lambda 2.08, P(1+)=87% P(2+)=61%
Gabriel Pec averages 2.07 SoT/match (14 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game → lambda 1.96, P(1+)=86% P(2+)=58%
K. Viveros averages 1.61 SoT/match (23 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game → lambda 1.77, P(1+)=83% P(2+)=53%
Raphael Veiga averages 1.60 SoT/match (5 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game → lambda 1.76, P(1+)=83% P(2+)=53%
M. Hartel averages 1.56 SoT/match (16 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game → lambda 1.72, P(1+)=82% P(2+)=51%
How is this built?
Shots-on-target probability comes from a Poisson model on each player's season SoT rate, adjusted for venue (home +10%, away -10%), opponent defensive softness vs the league average, and recent form. We require at least 5 league appearances before trusting the per-game rate, and we cap the per-match contribution at 2 legs so the acca isn't a one-game lottery ticket.
Combined probability assumes the legs are independent, in reality picks within the same fixture are mildly correlated, so treat the combined as a guide rather than a precise figure. This acca includes leagues we are still building a verified record on, so these legs are the model's read on the bookmakers' odds rather than tracked picks.