Shots on Target Acca
For Wednesday 15 July
We rank every named starter across today's fixtures by their 1+ and 2+ shots-on-target probability, then pick the top 2 across the day.
Today's Picks
L. Messi averages 2.58 SoT/match (31 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game → lambda 2.44, P(1+)=91% P(2+)=70%
H. Kane averages 2.16 SoT/match (31 apps) [WC form: 1.00/90 over 1 games (90 min), 18% weight → 1.96], home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game → lambda 2.15, P(1+)=88% P(2+)=63%
How is this built?
Shots-on-target probability comes from a Poisson model on each player's season SoT rate, adjusted for venue (home +10%, away -10%), opponent defensive softness vs the league average, and recent form. We require at least 5 league appearances before trusting the per-game rate, and we cap the per-match contribution at 2 legs so the acca isn't a one-game lottery ticket.
Combined probability assumes the legs are independent, in reality picks within the same fixture are mildly correlated, so treat the combined as a guide rather than a precise figure. Every prediction is logged on our track record page.