Shots on Target Acca
For Tuesday 13 October
We rank every named starter across today's fixtures by their 1+ and 2+ shots-on-target probability, then pick the top 5 across the day.
Today's Picks
Inter Miami vs New York City FC
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Thu 15 Oct, 00:30
L. Messi: 2.56 shots on target a game over 25 games [WC form: 3.89/90 over 3 games (208 min), 33% weight
Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers
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Thu 15 Oct, 03:30
Gabriel Pec: 2.07 shots on target a game over 14 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe
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Wed 14 Oct, 20:00
Talisca: 2.17 shots on target a game over 6 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders
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Thu 15 Oct, 01:30
P. Musa: 1.71 shots on target a game over 24 games [WC form: 1.36/90 over 1 games (66 min), 14% weight
Cardiff vs Watford
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Tue 13 Oct, 19:45
Y. Salech: 1.63 shots on target a game over 8 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
How is this built?
Shots-on-target probability comes from a Poisson model on each player's season SoT rate, adjusted for venue (home +10%, away -10%), opponent defensive softness vs the league average, and recent form. We require at least 5 league appearances before trusting the per-game rate, and we cap the per-match contribution at 2 legs so the acca isn't a one-game lottery ticket.
Combined probability assumes the legs are independent, in reality picks within the same fixture are mildly correlated, so treat the combined as a guide rather than a precise figure. This acca includes leagues we are still building a verified record on, so these legs are the model's read on the bookmakers' odds rather than tracked picks.
Other daily accas today
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.