Booking Acca
For Saturday 29 August
We pick the day's most likely-to-be-carded players, capped at 5 legs across the day's fixtures.
Today's Picks
W. Zaha (Midfielder) on 0.54 yellows/match (13 apps), pos-mult 1.20 → lambda 0.65, P(carded)=48%
C. Durkin (Midfielder) on 0.50 yellows/match (18 apps), pos-mult 1.20 → lambda 0.60, P(carded)=45%
E. Díaz (Defender) on 0.54 yellows/match (13 apps), pos-mult 1.10 → lambda 0.59, P(carded)=45%
B. Raines (Midfielder) on 0.47 yellows/match (19 apps), pos-mult 1.20 → lambda 0.57, P(carded)=43%
J. Atencio (Midfielder) on 0.47 yellows/match (17 apps), pos-mult 1.20 → lambda 0.56, P(carded)=43%
How is this built?
Card probability comes from each player's season cards-per-90, adjusted for opponent foul rate, referee strictness, derby-day heat, and recent yellow-card form. Cards are inherently lower probability. Even the heaviest-booked midfielder rarely passes 45%, so the combined fair odds stay generous. Cap of 2 legs per match still applies.
Combined probability assumes the legs are independent, in reality picks within the same fixture are mildly correlated, so treat the combined as a guide rather than a precise figure. This acca includes leagues we are still building a verified record on, so these legs are the model's read on the bookmakers' odds rather than tracked picks.