Daily Themed Acca

Booking Acca

For Tuesday 13 October

We pick the day's most likely-to-be-carded players, capped at 5 legs across the day's fixtures.

Legs
5
Combined Prob
1.1%
Combined Fair Odds
@89.57

Today's Picks

W. Zaha to be carded 48% ≈2.10
Columbus Crew crestCharlotte crestColumbus Crew vs Charlotte | Thu 15 Oct, 00:30

W. Zaha (Midfielder) on 0.54 yellows/match (13 apps), pos-mult 1.20
C. Durkin to be carded 41% ≈2.44
St. Louis City crestVancouver Whitecaps crestSt. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps | Thu 15 Oct, 01:30

C. Durkin (Midfielder) on 0.44 yellows/match (25 apps), pos-mult 1.20
J. Atencio to be carded 39% ≈2.54
Colorado Rapids crestMinnesota United FC crestColorado Rapids vs Minnesota United FC | Thu 15 Oct, 02:30

J. Atencio (Midfielder) on 0.42 yellows/match (24 apps), pos-mult 1.20
B. Raines to be carded 38% ≈2.62
FC Cincinnati crestNew England Revolution crestFC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution | Thu 15 Oct, 00:30

B. Raines (Midfielder) on 0.40 yellows/match (25 apps), pos-mult 1.20
A. Westwood to be carded 38% ≈2.62
Columbus Crew crestCharlotte crestColumbus Crew vs Charlotte | Thu 15 Oct, 00:30

A. Westwood (Midfielder) on 0.40 yellows/match (25 apps), pos-mult 1.20
We pick the day's most likely-to-be-carded players above 25%. Card markets are inherently lower probability, even the heaviest-booked midfielder rarely passes 45%, so the combined stays modest. Capped at 2 legs per match. This 5-leg combo lands at ~1.1% combined on the bookmakers' fair odds (~89.57). Combined probability assumes legs are independent, in practice legs within the same match are mildly correlated, so treat the combined as a guide. Includes leagues we're still building a verified record on.

How is this built?

Card probability comes from each player's season cards-per-90, adjusted for opponent foul rate, referee strictness, derby-day heat, and recent yellow-card form. Cards are inherently lower probability. Even the heaviest-booked midfielder rarely passes 45%, so the combined fair odds stay generous. Cap of 2 legs per match still applies.

Combined probability assumes the legs are independent, in reality picks within the same fixture are mildly correlated, so treat the combined as a guide rather than a precise figure. This acca includes leagues we are still building a verified record on, so these legs are the model's read on the bookmakers' odds rather than tracked picks.

Other daily accas today

5 legs
Shots on Target Acca
5 legs
Goal Rush Acca
Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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