The daily sheet
Friday 18 September · locked before kick-off, graded after · the record
The measured board 4 legs
How the rule works
One rule, applied to the whole card, and only what it allows. Each side's last six completed games, twelve in all. Over goal lines priced 1.35 or better with at least four bookmakers quoting, kept only where those twelve games cleared the line nine times or more. Highest count wins, ties go to the longer price, one leg per fixture.
Every other lane on this sheet is a judgement with its evidence attached. This one is a rule. It was tested against past results before it was published, it reads the same card as the lanes below, and every decision it made against the rest of that card is listed underneath.
Landed 10 of 12.
Best price at Betano, the 6 books average 1.32.
Break-even is the share of bets the price has to land to come out level. It sits beside the count so you can hold the two up against each other.
The folds 3 folds
Built from the legs above and from nothing else. A double and a treble, never longer: every leg you add multiplies the bookmaker's cut, and a single leg standing alone is the worst shape we have measured.
A fold is a bigger price for a smaller chance and nothing else. These shapes are here only because the legs came through the rule above; folding the legs this page used to publish is how it lost money all month.
Left alone today 68 refused
Every market the rule turned down today, with the number behind each.
The desk's acca 2.21x
Pro
The research desk: a card written on every fixture this morning
The model proposes, the desk reads the game and can veto. Both had to agree.
Refused today 3 refused
What we refused today, and why. Kill outcomes grade too, including the ones we get wrong.
The days ahead2 days
What the board has already locked for the 2 days ahead. Provisional, re-priced every morning.
Other sheets 13
The model board and the graded record