Wednesday's singles
Wednesday 28 October · locked before kick-off, graded after
Wednesday's singles. Each one passes three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. One unit each, locked before kick-off, graded after.
The singles 2 singles, one unit each locked Sun 25 Oct, 19:00
Bournemouth v Aston Villa
Free
Landed 3-0
Landed in 9 of the two sides' last 12 games.
Model: clears the break-even.
The desk: Both sides are missing a first-choice full-back: Bournemouth's Adam Smith and Villa's Matteo Ruggeri are both out, with Lewis Cook and Pau Torres fitness doubts; Premier League games for both clubs three days later point to rotation. Named doubts: Adam Smith (out), Lewis Cook (doubt).
Caution Both sides are scoring freely right now, but the head to head history between these two leans under and neither side's main striker loss is confirmed, so this is a stand but note the history pick.
The case against
- Three of the last five Bournemouth v Aston Villa meetings finished under the goal line, a genuine head to head pattern against the bet even though those games were Premier League rather than this EFL Cup tie.
- Each side has one recent miss in its last three games, Bournemouth's 2-0 win over Sunderland and Villa's 1-0 win over Newcastle, so the very recent sample is not spotless even though it falls short of the two-miss threshold that would make this severe.
- This is an early round League Cup tie and both clubs are juggling heavy continental schedules this week, Bournemouth in the Europa League and Villa in the Champions League, which raises the normal risk of squad rotation, though no confirmed team sheet for this exact match was found.
Missing: E. J. Kroupi (Bournemouth): An attacking player used in recent Bournemouth forward lines, his absence trims one more attacking option even though he is not the club's main scoring source
Fluminense v Internacional
Landed 2-1
The punt 3 bets, half a unit each
The fun bet: both teams to score, half a unit, never counted in the singles' record.
30 days on the record
Every sheet stays in the archive, the days with no single included. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.