VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln Predictions & Odds
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A Bundesliga tie. Our model makes it VfB Stuttgart 0%, the draw 0%, 1. FC Köln 0%.
One thing to keep in mind about VfB Stuttgart. They're scoring 2.2 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.9. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.4), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
VfB Stuttgart create chances worth 1.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.8), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. 1. FC Köln create 1.9 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of +0.3. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. VfB Stuttgart are scoring 2.2 goals a game off chances worth just 1.9. That's +0.4 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off.
VfB Stuttgart average 2.2 goals per game and 1. FC Köln manage 0.0. Combined that's just 2.2. We make it 50% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams score in 41% of VfB Stuttgart's home games and 71% of 1. FC Köln's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
VfB Stuttgart are all-out attack: 2.2 goals a game, but they leak 2.2 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at 1. FC Köln, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. 1. FC Köln prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for VfB Stuttgart against this setup. The chance data suggests VfB Stuttgart will create openings. The chances they create are worth 1.9 a game and 1. FC Köln give up chances worth 1.6 on the road. Expect VfB Stuttgart to see plenty of the ball.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%) and 0-1 (12%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | VfB Stuttgart Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | 1. FC Köln Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 19:30 in the Bundesliga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.