Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin Predictions & Odds
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Bayer Leverkusen have taken 7 points from their last five; Union Berlin have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Bundesliga tie.
The gap in chance quality is clear: Bayer Leverkusen come out at +0.6 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.5. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Bayer Leverkusen create chances worth 2.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.9), leaving them +0.6 a game on the balance. Union Berlin create 1.4 (giving up 1.9) for a balance of -0.5. The underlying numbers clearly favour Bayer Leverkusen. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Bayer Leverkusen are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Union Berlin manage 2.2 (2.2 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams score in 65% of Bayer Leverkusen's home games and 53% of Union Berlin's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Bayer Leverkusen are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.6 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Union Berlin, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Union Berlin have goals in them (2.2 per game) but their record at the back (1.6 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. The chance data suggests Bayer Leverkusen will create openings. The chances they create are worth 2.6 a game and Union Berlin give up chances worth 1.9 on the road. Expect Bayer Leverkusen to see plenty of the ball.
In the last 10 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, Union Berlin 1, with 4 draws. These fixtures average 2.2 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen, Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Union Berlin, Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 Union Berlin, Union Berlin 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Bayer Leverkusen Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Union Berlin Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Full Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin head-to-head history →
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 14:30 in the Bundesliga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.