Tottenham vs Aston Villa Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
Get the model's verified verdict on Tottenham (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Tottenham have lost three of their last five; Aston Villa have lost their last two. Form gives little away going into this Premier League tie.
Tottenham will be looking to make home advantage count (W0 D0 L1 at home). Aston Villa's away record reads W0 D0 L1. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Tottenham's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. Aston Villa could be in for a similar cool-off. 1.8 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.4. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Tottenham create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Aston Villa create 1.4 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.2. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Aston Villa are also scoring more than their chances suggest (1.8 goals vs chance quality of 1.4). Both runs could cool off at once.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Tottenham are scoring 1.4 a game (0.0 of those at home) and Aston Villa manage 1.8 (0.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 40%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 43%.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 68% of Tottenham's home games and 63% of Aston Villa's away matches.
In the last 10 meetings: Tottenham have won 3, Aston Villa 7, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 3.1 goals per game. 8 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham, Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa, Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa, Aston Villa 2-0 Tottenham.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (7%) and 0-2 (4%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Tottenham Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Aston Villa Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Tottenham vs Aston Villa kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 12:30 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 43.3% probability.