Newcastle vs Hull City Predictions & Odds
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There's barely anything between these two. Newcastle (6th, 4 pts) and Hull City (3rd, 6 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the Premier League table.
Hull City are no pushovers away from home. W1 D0 L0 from 1 away trips, scoring 1.0 per game on the road. Newcastle (W0 D1 L0 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. Season-long, Hull City average 3.0 points per game compared to Newcastle's 2.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Newcastle create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.1 a game on the balance. Hull City create 1.2 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of 0.0. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Newcastle are scoring 2.0 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Hull City manage 1.5 (1.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 41%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 79% of Newcastle's home games and 65% of Hull City's away matches.
Both sides are in the hunt for a top-four finish. Newcastle (6th) and Hull City (3rd) know this is must-win territory. A defeat here would be a real blow to their European hopes.
Newcastle are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 1.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Hull City, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Hull City prefer to keep things tight (0.3 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Newcastle against this setup.
In the last 6 meetings: Newcastle have won 3, Hull City 1, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 3.5 goals per game. 4 of the last 6 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Hull City 0-2 Newcastle, Hull City 1-1 Newcastle, Hull City 0-3 Newcastle, Newcastle 2-2 Hull City.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%) and 0-1 (11%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Newcastle Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Hull City Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Newcastle vs Hull City kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 48.7% probability.