Nottingham Forest vs Coventry Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Neck and neck in the Premier League standings. Nottingham Forest (14th, 1 pts) host Coventry (17th, 0 pts) in a contest that promises intensity.
Nottingham Forest will be looking to make home advantage count (W0 D0 L1 at home). Coventry's away record reads W0 D0 L1. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Coventry have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average. Season-long, Nottingham Forest average 0.5 points per game compared to Coventry's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. The gap in chance quality is clear: Coventry come out at +0.9 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.2. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Nottingham Forest create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Coventry create 2.1 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +0.9. On the quality of chances, Coventry look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Nottingham Forest are scoring 1.0 a game (0.0 of those at home) and Coventry manage 2.0 (0.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 42%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 46%. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Nottingham Forest and Coventry together create chances worth 3.4 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Both teams score in 47% of Nottingham Forest's home games and 57% of Coventry's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Coventry travel here with relegation breathing down their neck. At 17th, they can't afford to drop many more points.
Coventry have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (2.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. Don't underestimate the visitors. Coventry create chances worth 2.1 a game and Nottingham Forest give up chances worth 1.5 at home. The away side could control the ball here.
In the last 7 meetings: Nottingham Forest have won 4, Coventry 3, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 2.6 goals per game. 4 of the last 7 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Nottingham Forest 1-3 Coventry, Nottingham Forest 2-0 Coventry, Coventry 2-1 Nottingham Forest, Coventry 1-2 Nottingham Forest.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10%) and 0-1 (7%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Nottingham Forest Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Coventry Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Nottingham Forest vs Coventry kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 17:30 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 46.1% probability.