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The model makes Hull City 42% favourites here. Stoke City carry the 31% upset.
Stoke City have lost four of their last five; Hull City have won three of their last five. The visitors bring the sharper form into this EFL Cup tie.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Stoke City create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Hull City create 1.2 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of 0.0. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. A worry for Stoke City: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.1 a game, well below their 1.5 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
Stoke City average 1.0 goals per game and Hull City manage 1.3. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it 51% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 51%.
Hull City prefer to keep things tight (0.8 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Stoke City against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Stoke City Win | @2.70 | 30.5% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 27.5% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Hull City Win | @2.55 | 42.0% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.67 | 50.5% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @2.12 | 49.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.90 | 51.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.92 | 48.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.35 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Hull City the favourite with a 42.0% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Stoke City @ 2.70, Draw @ 3.10, Hull City @ 2.55. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Stoke City vs Hull City kicks off on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 19:45 in the EFL Cup.