01The read
Southampton Host West Ham: Our Prediction
The model makes West Ham 42% favourites here. Southampton carry the 30% upset.
Southampton have won three of their last five; West Ham have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this EFL Cup tie.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 75% of Southampton's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 58% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Southampton create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them +0.5 a game on the balance. West Ham create 1.2 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of -0.2. The underlying numbers clearly favour Southampton. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Southampton are scoring 1.6 a game (1.6 of those at home) and West Ham manage 1.4 (1.4 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 58%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 54%.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Southampton HT
3.30
-
Draw HT
2.40
-
West Ham HT
3.10
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Southampton · xG
For: 1.75/g
Against: 1.22/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.58/g, possibly running hot
📊 West Ham · xG
For: 1.22/g
Against: 1.43/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Southampton vs West Ham Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Southampton Win |
@2.62
|
30.2% |
Bet365 |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.60
|
27.5% |
Bet365 |
| Match Result |
West Ham Win |
@2.45
|
42.3% |
Bet365 |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.62
|
53.8% |
Bet365 |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.32
|
46.2% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.70
|
58.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.20
|
41.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.22
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.35
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.47
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.8%
2-2
5.8%
3-1
4.5%
1-3
3.4%
3-0
3.4%
3-2
2.9%
2-3
2.6%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 1.5 goals
85%
@1.25
Betano
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
85%
@1.21
Betano
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
83%
@1.26
Betano
-
Under 12.5 corners
83%
@1.26
1xBet
-
West Ham over 0.5 goals
83%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Southampton or West Ham (double chance)
82%
@1.31
Marathon Bet
-
Southampton over 0.5 goals
82%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Southampton under 2 goals
80%
@1.25
Marathon Bet
-
West Ham under 2 goals
78%
@1.29
Marathon Bet
-
Over 8.5 corners
78%
@1.49
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
77%
@1.38
Betano
-
Over 2 goals
77%
@1.35
Unibet
Build a slip from these markets →