San Diego vs Philadelphia Union Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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San Diego have taken 7 points from their last five; Philadelphia Union are unbeaten in their last five. The visitors bring the sharper form into this MLS tie.
M. Ingvartsen has been San Diego's spearhead, with 11 goals and 3 assists in 21 appearances, averaging 0.90 shots on target per game. M. Iloski has been Philadelphia Union's main threat, with 10 goals and 2 assists in 21 appearances, averaging 1.33 shots on target per game.
Philadelphia Union have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
San Diego create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.5 a game on the balance. Philadelphia Union create 1.7 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.3. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. A worry for San Diego: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.5 a game, well below their 1.8 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
San Diego average 1.8 goals per game and Philadelphia Union manage 1.7. Combined that's just 3.5. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. San Diego and Philadelphia Union together create chances worth 3.5 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
San Diego are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.7 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Philadelphia Union, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | San Diego Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Philadelphia Union Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
San Diego vs Philadelphia Union kicks off on Monday 14 September 2026 at 02:00 in the MLS.