01The read
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds: Match Preview & Prediction
Too close to call on the numbers. Nottingham Forest 39%, Leeds 35%, the draw live at 26%.
Nottingham Forest have taken five points from their last five; Leeds have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this EFL Cup tie.
▸ Form & goals
One thing to keep in mind about Nottingham Forest. They're scoring 1.9 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.4. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.9), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. A concern for Leeds: they're giving up chances worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.3 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Nottingham Forest create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Leeds create 1.4 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Nottingham Forest are scoring 1.9 goals a game off chances worth just 1.4. That's +0.9 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. Leeds's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 vs 1.3 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Nottingham Forest are scoring 1.9 a game (1.9 of those at home) and Leeds manage 1.2 (1.2 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 52%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
▸ Team news & context
Nottingham Forest are all-out attack: 1.9 goals a game, but they leak 1.4 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Leeds, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Nottingham Forest HT
2.80
-
Draw HT
2.31
-
Leeds HT
3.81
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Nottingham Forest · xG
For: 1.35/g
Against: 1.53/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.85/g, possibly running hot
📊 Leeds · xG
For: 1.40/g
Against: 1.30/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Nottingham Forest Win |
@2.20
|
38.9% |
Bet365 |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.40
|
26.3% |
Bet365 |
| Match Result |
Leeds Win |
@3.20
|
34.8% |
Bet365 |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.70
|
51.5% |
Bet365 |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.15
|
48.5% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.85
|
52.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.00
|
47.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.38
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.8%
1-2
7.5%
0-1
7.2%
2-0
7.0%
2-2
5.9%
0-0
5.5%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
85%
@1.22
Bet365
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
84%
@1.24
Betano
-
Nottingham Forest over 0.5 goals
84%
@1.23
Betano
-
Over 7.5 corners
83%
@1.38
Unibet
-
Over 1.5 goals
81%
@1.27
BetVictor
-
Under 11.5 corners
81%
@1.31
1xBet
-
Nottingham Forest or Leeds (double chance)
80%
@1.33
Marathon Bet
-
Nottingham Forest or Draw (double chance)
78%
@1.38
Marathon Bet
-
Leeds over 2.5 corners
78%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Nottingham Forest under 2 goals
78%
@1.30
Marathon Bet
-
Nottingham Forest under 6.5 corners
78%
@1.29
Unibet
-
Leeds under 5.5 corners
77%
@1.30
Unibet
Build a slip from these markets →