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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 49.0% | 58.8% | 10 pts under |
| Northampton Win | 41.3% | 50.8% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50.5% | 53.8% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Northampton know what's at stake, and so do Swindon Town.
A League Two fixture between Northampton and Swindon Town. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Northampton will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Swindon Town travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Northampton edge it at 41% but a draw (27%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Northampton average 1.0 goals per game and Swindon Town manage 0.8. Combined that's just 1.8. We make it only 51% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%.
Both teams score in 52% of Northampton's home games and 52% of Swindon Town's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Northampton Win | @2.10 | 41.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 27.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Swindon Town Win | @3.30 | 31.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.73 | 49.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.00 | 51.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 50.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.87 | 49.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.55 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.33 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Northampton the favourite with a 41.3% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Northampton @ 2.10, Draw @ 3.25, Swindon Town @ 3.30. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Northampton vs Swindon Town kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League Two.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 49.0% probability.
Our top prediction is Northampton to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.