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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby Win | 45.4% | 57.1% | 12 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 49.0% | 58.8% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51.5% | 54.9% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Grimsby know what's at stake, and so do Exeter City.
A League Two fixture between Grimsby and Exeter City. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Grimsby will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Exeter City travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Grimsby edge it at 45% but a draw (27%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Grimsby are scoring 2.3 a game (2.3 of those at home) and Exeter City manage 1.8 (1.8 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 52%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%.
Both teams score in 48% of Grimsby's home games and 48% of Exeter City's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Grimsby are all-out attack: 2.3 goals a game, but they leak 1.4 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Exeter City, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Grimsby Win | @1.80 | 45.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.40 | 26.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Exeter City Win | @4.20 | 28.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 49.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.95 | 51.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.85 | 51.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.95 | 48.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.35 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Grimsby the favourite with a 45.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Grimsby @ 1.80, Draw @ 3.40, Exeter City @ 4.20. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Grimsby vs Exeter City kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League Two.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 49.0% probability.
Our top prediction is Grimsby to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.