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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham Win | 31.0% | 44.4% | 13 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 47.6% | 57.1% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42.6% | 49.8% | 7 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Form, fitness, fine margins. Oldham and Port Vale meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
Oldham welcome Port Vale in the League Two. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Oldham will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Port Vale travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Port Vale edge it at 40% but a draw (29%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Oldham average 1.6 goals per game and Port Vale manage 0.9. Combined that's just 2.5. We make it only 43% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Both teams score in 43% of Oldham's home games and 35% of Port Vale's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed. Oldham keep the other side out in 41% of games and Port Vale fail to score 52% of the time. there's a real chance one side keeps it tight at the back.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Oldham Win | @2.60 | 31.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 28.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Port Vale Win | @2.62 | 40.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.80 | 47.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.91 | 52.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.10 | 42.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.75 | 57.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Port Vale the favourite with a 40.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Oldham @ 2.60, Draw @ 3.10, Port Vale @ 2.62. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Oldham vs Port Vale kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 12:30 in the League Two.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 47.6% probability.
Our top prediction is Port Vale to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.