Lille vs Paris Saint Germain Predictions & Odds
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Lille have taken 8 points from their last five; Paris Saint Germain have taken 8 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Ligue 1 tie.
A concern for Paris Saint Germain: they're giving up chances worth 1.4 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.0 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Lille create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 0.6), leaving them +0.9 a game on the balance. Paris Saint Germain create 2.2 (giving up 1.0) for a balance of +1.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. A worry for Lille: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.2 a game, well below their 1.5 season figure. The attacking output has dipped. Paris Saint Germain's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.4 a game over their last 5 vs 1.0 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Lille average 0.6 goals per game and Paris Saint Germain manage 2.0. Combined that's just 2.6. We make it only 8% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring looks unlikely (just 29%). Lille shut the door in 38% of their games and Paris Saint Germain draw a blank in 26% of theirs, so don't be surprised if one side keeps it tight at the back. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Lille and Paris Saint Germain together create chances worth 3.7 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Both teams score in 47% of Lille's home games and 71% of Paris Saint Germain's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Lille do it the hard way: only 0.6 a game up top, but a mean 0.6 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Paris Saint Germain have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.2 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (14%) and 1-1 (13%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Lille Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Paris Saint Germain Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 19:45 in the Ligue 1.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.