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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 47.6% | 57.1% | 10 pts under |
| York Win | 41.7% | 48.5% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47.7% | 50.5% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
York know what's at stake, and so do Bristol Rovers.
York take on Bristol Rovers in the League Two. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. York will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Bristol Rovers travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: York at 42%, but the draw sits at 28%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Goals are a tough one to call here. York are scoring 1.7 a game (1.7 of those at home) and Bristol Rovers manage 2.5 (2.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 48%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 75% of York's home games and 57% of Bristol Rovers's away matches.
Bristol Rovers are similarly well-balanced. 2.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | York Win | @2.20 | 41.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 27.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Bristol Rovers Win | @3.20 | 30.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.80 | 47.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.91 | 52.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.05 | 47.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.75 | 52.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.30 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.29 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes York the favourite with a 41.7% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: York @ 2.20, Draw @ 3.10, Bristol Rovers @ 3.20. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
York vs Bristol Rovers kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League Two.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 47.6% probability.
Our top prediction is York to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.