Gremio vs Vasco da Gama Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
Get the model's verified verdict on Gremio (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
A Brasileirão Série A meeting between Gremio (9th, 49 pts) and Vasco da Gama (14th, 45 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
Carlos Vinícius has been Gremio's spearhead, with 10 goals and 1 assists in 22 appearances, averaging 1.00 shots on target per game. Thiago Mendes has been Vasco da Gama's main threat, with 3 goals and 1 assists in 20 appearances, averaging 0.40 shots on target per game.
Gremio will be looking to make home advantage count (W9 D5 L5 at home). Vasco da Gama's away record reads W5 D2 L12. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Gremio create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Vasco da Gama create 1.0 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.5. The underlying numbers clearly favour Gremio. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Gremio average 1.2 goals per game and Vasco da Gama manage 1.4. Combined that's just 2.6. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
In the last 10 meetings: Gremio have won 5, Vasco da Gama 3, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.0 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Vasco da Gama 2-1 Gremio, Gremio 2-0 Vasco da Gama, Vasco da Gama 1-1 Gremio.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Gremio Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Vasco da Gama Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Gremio vs Vasco da Gama kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 21:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.