Flamengo vs Corinthians Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Flamengo (1st, 79 pts) are firmly in the top six and host a Corinthians side (13th, 47 pts) languishing in the bottom half. On paper, this looks comfortable.
Pedro has been Flamengo's spearhead, with 15 goals and 4 assists in 23 appearances, averaging 1.26 shots on target per game. R. Garro has been Corinthians's main threat, with 3 goals and 6 assists in 22 appearances, averaging 0.68 shots on target per game.
Flamengo's home record this season is formidable. W14 D5 L0 from 19, scoring 2.4 goals per game at home. Corinthians, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W4 D5 L10 from 19 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore. Corinthians are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.5 against 1.1 actual goals). They look due a few more.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Flamengo create chances worth 2.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them +1.1 a game on the balance. Corinthians create 1.5 (giving up 1.0) for a balance of +0.5. The underlying numbers clearly favour Flamengo. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Corinthians are creating chances worth 1.5 a game but only finishing 1.1. the underlying performance is better than the results show.
Flamengo average 2.1 goals per game and Corinthians manage 1.1. Combined that's just 3.2. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Flamengo and Corinthians together create chances worth 3.7 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Flamengo are in great shape right now, banging in 2.1 a game and only letting in 0.7. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back.
In the last 10 meetings: Flamengo have won 5, Corinthians 2, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.0 goals per game. 3 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Corinthians 1-1 Flamengo, Flamengo 0-2 Corinthians, Corinthians 1-2 Flamengo.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Flamengo Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Corinthians Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Flamengo vs Corinthians kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 21:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.