Atletico-MG vs Fluminense Predictions & Odds
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Atletico-MG are unbeaten in their last five; Fluminense are unbeaten in their last five. Form gives little away going into this Brasileirão Série A tie.
T. Cuello has been Atletico-MG's spearhead, with 4 goals and 1 assists in 20 appearances, averaging 0.55 shots on target per game. John Kennedy has been Fluminense's main threat, with 9 goals and 1 assists in 18 appearances, averaging 1.44 shots on target per game.
One thing to keep in mind about Atletico-MG. They're scoring 1.6 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.2. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.6), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Atletico-MG create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them -0.3 a game on the balance. Fluminense create 1.4 (giving up 0.8) for a balance of +0.6. On the quality of chances, Fluminense look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Atletico-MG are scoring 1.6 goals a game off chances worth just 1.2. That's +0.6 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off.
Atletico-MG average 1.6 goals per game and Fluminense manage 1.3. Combined that's just 2.9. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Atletico-MG Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Fluminense Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 21:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.