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The model makes Fleetwood Town 43% favourites here. Shrewsbury carry the 29% upset.
Fleetwood Town are unbeaten in their last four; Shrewsbury are winless in their last four. The momentum is with the hosts going into this EFL Cup tie.
Fleetwood Town average 1.3 goals per game and Shrewsbury manage 0.8. Combined that's just 2.0. We make it 49% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 47%.
Fleetwood Town do it the hard way: only 1.3 a game up top, but a mean 0.8 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Fleetwood Town Win | @2.00 | 43.4% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.40 | 27.5% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Shrewsbury Win | @3.30 | 29.0% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.80 | 47.3% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @1.95 | 52.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.00 | 48.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.81 | 51.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.30 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.30 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Fleetwood Town the favourite with a 43.4% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Fleetwood Town @ 2.00, Draw @ 3.40, Shrewsbury @ 3.30. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Fleetwood Town vs Shrewsbury kicks off on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 19:45 in the EFL Cup.