03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
52.5% |
62.5% |
10 pts under
|
| Club Brugge Win |
31.4% |
40.0% |
9 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Club Brugge vs Aston Villa: Match Preview & Prediction
The model makes Aston Villa 43% favourites here. Club Brugge carry the 31% upset.
Aston Villa slight edge (43%) | Predicted: 1-2
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Club Brugge at @2.70 for this Champions League tie, with Aston Villa out at @2.40.
Our verdict
Marginal call: Aston Villa at just 43%. With the draw at 26%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Aston Villa, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
📉
Cold Run
Aston Villa have lost their last 2. Confidence in that dressing room will be low
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Club Brugge are scoring 2.3 a game (3.1 of those at home) and Aston Villa manage 1.6 (1.6 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 53%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Club Brugge are all-out attack: 2.3 goals a game, but they leak 1.9 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Aston Villa, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (9%) and 2-1 (8%).
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Aston Villa · xG
For: 1.37/g
Against: 1.53/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.43/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Club Brugge vs Aston Villa Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Club Brugge Win |
@2.70
|
31.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
25.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Aston Villa Win |
@2.40
|
43.0% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.70
|
52.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.10
|
47.5% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Club Brugge vs Aston Villa Team Stats
Club Brugge
Played
14
Record
7W-2D-5L
Goals F/A
32/27
Avg Goals Scored
2.30
Home Record
4W-2D-1L
Aston Villa
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
8.8%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
7.2%
1-0
5.1%
3-1
5.0%
0-1
4.8%
2-0
4.7%