03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| AEK Athens Win |
52.8% |
61.3% |
9 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
60.3% |
63.3% |
3 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🛡
AEK Athens have kept a clean sheet in 67% of games this season
01The read
AEK Athens vs LASK: Match Preview & Prediction
The model makes AEK Athens 53% favourites here. LASK carry the 24% upset.
AEK Athens slight edge (53%) | Three or more goals likely (60%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
AEK Athens are unbeaten in their last five; LASK have taken six points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Champions League tie.
Our verdict
Too close to call with any conviction. AEK Athens edge it at 53% but a draw (23%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Our pick
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.67. Model probability 60% vs implied 60%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Key facts
🧤
Defensive Wall
AEK Athens keep clean sheets in 67% of games. One of the tightest defences around
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 83% of LASK's matches this season
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 60% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals look likely here. AEK Athens average 2.5 per game (2.5 at home) and LASK chip in with 1.3 (1.3 away). Defensively, AEK Athens concede 0.5 at home and LASK leak 1.5 on the road. We make it 60% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
AEK Athens are in great shape right now, banging in 2.5 a game and only letting in 0.5. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (10%) and 3-0 (7%).
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
AEK Athens vs LASK Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
AEK Athens Win |
@1.73
|
52.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.80
|
23.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
LASK Win |
@4.40
|
24.2% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.67
|
60.3% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.20
|
39.7% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.9%
3-0
7.2%
3-1
6.6%
4-0
3.6%
4-1
3.3%
3-2
3.0%
4-2
1.5%
5-0
1.4%