03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Borussia Dortmund Win |
51.8% |
60.2% |
8 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
59.7% |
63.7% |
4 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🚨
Villarreal have failed to score in 62% of matches
🔥
Borussia Dortmund are on a 3-game winning streak
01The read
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal: Desperation Stakes at the Bottom
Borussia Dortmund have won 3 on the bounce. The model prices this one at 52%.
Borussia Dortmund slight edge (52%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Borussia Dortmund (17th, 11 pts) host Villarreal (35th, 1 pts) in the Champions League. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
Our verdict
Marginal call: Borussia Dortmund at just 52%. With the draw at 23%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Borussia Dortmund, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
🔥
Goals Expected
Borussia Dortmund score 2.4 per game at home and Villarreal concede 2.3 away. Goals look inevitable
😶
Goal Shy
Villarreal fail to score in 63% of their games. They go missing in front of goal far too often
🤝
Draw Merchants
1 draws from 3 meetings. Stalemates are the pattern here
🔥
Hot Streak
Borussia Dortmund have won 3 in a row. Momentum is real
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 63% of Villarreal's matches this season
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 60% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Borussia Dortmund's home record this season is formidable. W3 D1 L1 from 5, scoring 2.4 goals per game at home. Villarreal, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W0 D0 L4 from 4 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore. Borussia Dortmund's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. Season-long, Borussia Dortmund average 1.1 points per game compared to Villarreal's 0.1. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. The gap in chance quality is clear: Borussia Dortmund come out at +1.0 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.5. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Borussia Dortmund create chances worth 2.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them +1.0 a game on the balance. Villarreal create 1.6 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +0.5. The underlying numbers clearly favour Borussia Dortmund. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. A worry for Borussia Dortmund: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.9 a game, well below their 2.2 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Borussia Dortmund are scoring 2.2 a game (2.4 of those at home) and Villarreal manage 0.6 (0.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 60%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.3 goals when they meet, with 2 of the last 3 producing three or more. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Borussia Dortmund create chances worth 2.2 a game and Villarreal 1.6. Combined, that's 3.8 a game from open play alone.
Both teams score in 41% of Borussia Dortmund's home games and 63% of Villarreal's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
A genuine relegation six-pointer. Borussia Dortmund (17th) and Villarreal (35th) are both looking over their shoulders. This could define their entire season.
Borussia Dortmund are all-out attack: 2.2 goals a game, but they leak 2.1 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Villarreal, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
In the last 3 meetings: Borussia Dortmund have won 1, Villarreal 1, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 3.3 goals per game. 2 of the last 3 produced 3+ goals. Clean sheets are common in this fixture. One-sided results have been the pattern. Recent results: Borussia Dortmund 4-0 Villarreal, Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Villarreal, Borussia Dortmund 0-2 Villarreal.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%) and 3-1 (7%).
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Borussia Dortmund · xG
For: 2.17/g
Against: 1.18/g
📊 Villarreal · xG
For: 1.64/g
Against: 1.17/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.46/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Borussia Dortmund Win |
@1.80
|
51.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.80
|
22.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Villarreal Win |
@4.00
|
25.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.57
|
59.7% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.30
|
40.3% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal Team Stats
Borussia Dortmund
Position
17
Played
10
Record
4W-2D-4L
Goals F/A
22/21
Avg Goals Scored
2.20
Points
11
Overall Form
WWWLW
Home Record
3W-1D-1L
Villarreal
Position
35
Played
8
Record
0W-1D-7L
Goals F/A
5/18
Avg Goals Scored
0.60
Points
1
Overall Form
LDDWL
Away Record
0W-0D-4L
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal Head to Head
1 Home Wins
1 Draws
1 Away Wins
3.3
Avg Goals
1/3
BTTS
2/3
Over 2.5
2025-11-25
Borussia Dortmund 4-0 Villarreal
2024-08-06
Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Villarreal
2022-07-22
Borussia Dortmund 0-2 Villarreal
Full Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.3%
3-1
7.0%
3-0
5.2%
3-2
4.7%
4-1
3.9%
4-0
2.9%
4-2
2.7%
5-1
1.8%