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The model makes Lincoln 46% favourites here. Blackpool carry the 26% upset.
Blackpool are unbeaten in their last four; Lincoln have won four of their last five. Form gives little away going into this EFL Cup tie.
Goals look likely here. Blackpool average 1.5 per game (1.5 at home) and Lincoln chip in with 2.2 (2.2 away). Defensively, Blackpool concede 0.5 at home and Lincoln leak 1.2 on the road. We make it 55% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%.
Blackpool do it the hard way: only 1.5 a game up top, but a mean 0.5 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Lincoln have goals in them (2.2 per game) but their record at the back (1.2 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. Both sides keep clean sheets regularly. This could be a tight, low-block affair where the first goal is decisive.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Blackpool Win | @3.40 | 26.0% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.30 | 27.6% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Lincoln Win | @2.00 | 46.4% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.67 | 52.8% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @2.20 | 47.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.80 | 55.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.04 | 44.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.40 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Lincoln the favourite with a 46.4% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Blackpool @ 3.40, Draw @ 3.30, Lincoln @ 2.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Blackpool vs Lincoln kicks off on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 19:45 in the EFL Cup.