Get the model's verified verdict on Blackburn (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Blackburn 32%, the draw 28%, Sheffield Utd 41%. That's the shape of this one.
The bookmakers open Blackburn at @2.62 for this EFL Cup tie, with Sheffield Utd out at @2.50.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Blackburn create chances worth 1.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them -0.5 a game on the balance. Sheffield Utd create 1.7 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of +0.1. On the quality of chances, Sheffield Utd look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Blackburn average 1.8 goals per game and Sheffield Utd manage 0.0. Combined that's just 1.8. We make it 51% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
Sheffield Utd prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Blackburn against this setup. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Blackburn Win | @2.62 | 31.5% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.20 | 27.5% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Sheffield Utd Win | @2.50 | 41.0% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.70 | 51.5% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @2.15 | 48.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.90 | 51.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.95 | 48.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.36 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Sheffield Utd the favourite with a 41.0% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Blackburn @ 2.62, Draw @ 3.20, Sheffield Utd @ 2.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Blackburn vs Sheffield Utd kicks off on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 19:45 in the EFL Cup.