01The read
Analysing Birmingham vs Brentford: Who Wins?
The model makes Brentford 47% favourites here. Birmingham carry the 26% upset.
Birmingham are unbeaten in their last five; Brentford have taken five points from their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this EFL Cup tie.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 60% of Birmingham's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 58% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Brentford are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.5 against 1.4 actual goals). They look due a few more. A concern for Brentford: they're giving up chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.6 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Birmingham create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them 0.0 a game on the balance. Brentford create 1.5 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.2. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Brentford are creating chances worth 1.5 a game but only finishing 1.4. the underlying performance is better than the results show. Brentford's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 vs 1.6 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Birmingham are scoring 1.2 a game (1.2 of those at home) and Brentford manage 1.4 (1.4 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 58%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%.
▸ Team news & context
Birmingham do it the hard way: only 1.2 a game up top, but a mean 0.6 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Birmingham HT
4.51
-
Draw HT
2.43
-
Brentford HT
2.40
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Birmingham · xG
For: 1.23/g
Against: 1.19/g
📊 Brentford · xG
For: 1.46/g
Against: 1.61/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.36/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Birmingham vs Brentford Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Birmingham Win |
@3.90
|
26.3% |
Bet365 |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.40
|
26.6% |
Bet365 |
| Match Result |
Brentford Win |
@1.85
|
47.1% |
Bet365 |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.62
|
53.1% |
Bet365 |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.25
|
46.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.70
|
58.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.17
|
42.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.33
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.62
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.45
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
6.4%
1-3
2.1%
0-3
1.5%
2-3
1.5%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
85%
@1.22
Betano
-
Brentford or Draw (double chance)
85%
@1.27
Betano
-
Under 4 goals
85%
@1.22
BetVictor
-
Over 1.5 goals
84%
@1.23
Betano
-
Birmingham or Brentford (double chance)
84%
@1.30
Bet365
-
Over 7.5 corners
84%
@1.34
Unibet
-
Under 12 corners
83%
@1.20
1xBet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
82%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Brentford under 2.5 goals
80%
@1.30
Marathon Bet
-
Brentford over 1 goals
80%
@1.25
Marathon Bet
-
Birmingham under 5.5 corners
79%
@1.27
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
78%
@1.33
Marathon Bet
Build a slip from these markets →