Who is favourite to win Wolves vs Stoke City?

Our model rates Wolves as the favourite with a 58.0% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Wolves 58.0%, draw 24.6%, Stoke City 17.4%.

Where can I watch Wolves vs Stoke City?

Check official Championship broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Wolves vs Stoke City?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 59.0% probability and Under 2.5 goals 41.0%. The lean is towards a high-scoring game.

70% verified · 837 picks Championship Saturday 29 August 2026, 12:30

Wolves vs Stoke City Predictions & Odds

W Wolves 58.0% @1.50

VS Draw 24.6%

S Stoke City 17.4% @6.00

Our model call Clear favourites: Wolves A 58% call, draw at 25%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Wolves 58% 1.50 Draw 25% 4.20 Stoke City 17% 6.00

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 41% 2.11 Over 2.5 59% 1.80 Over 1.5 @1.25

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 45% 1.91 Yes 55% 1.80

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Wolves Win	58.0%	69.9%	12 pts under
Both Teams to Score	55.3%	55.6%	0 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	59.0%	58.8%	0 pts over

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

01The read

Wolves Host Stoke City: Our Prediction

The model makes Wolves 58% favourites here. Stoke City carry the 17% upset.

Wolves slight edge (58%) | Predicted: 2-1 Confidence ★★★★★

Wolves (4th, 4 pts) are firmly in the top six and host a Stoke City side (20th, 0 pts) languishing in the bottom half. On paper, this looks comfortable.

Our verdict

We lean towards Wolves at 58%. The edge is there but not overwhelming, so a stake-back-on-a-draw option is worth a thought for an acca.

Our pick

Our PickWolves to win at @1.50. Model probability 58% vs implied 67%. The market is 9pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.

Model58%

Market67%

Key facts

🔥

Goals Expected Wolves score 2.0 per game at home and Stoke City concede 3.0 away. Goals look inevitable

🎯

Goals Lean We make it 59% for three or more goals in this one

▸ Form & goals

Wolves will be looking to make home advantage count (W0 D1 L0 at home). Stoke City's away record reads W0 D0 L1. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Wolves create chances worth 1.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.5 a game on the balance. Stoke City create 1.5 (giving up 1.7) for a balance of -0.2. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.

Goals look likely here. Wolves average 2.5 per game (2.0 at home) and Stoke City chip in with 1.0 (1.0 away). Defensively, Wolves concede 2.0 at home and Stoke City leak 3.0 on the road. We make it 59% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 55%.

▸ Team news & context

Stoke City travel here with relegation breathing down their neck. At 20th, they can't afford to drop many more points.

Wolves are all-out attack: 2.5 goals a game, but they leak 1.5 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Stoke City, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.

In the last 8 meetings: Wolves have won 2, Stoke City 4, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.4 goals per game. 4 of the last 8 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Stoke City 1-1 Wolves, Stoke City 1-1 Wolves, Wolves 0-1 Stoke City.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

First Half Result

Wolves HT 1.95
Draw HT 2.40
Stoke City HT 5.50

Team Intel

📊 Wolves · xG

For: 1.02/g Against: 1.65/g

📊 Stoke City · xG

For: 1.45/g Against: 1.69/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Wolves vs Stoke City Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Wolves Win	@1.50	58.0%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@4.20	24.6%	William Hill
Match Result	Stoke City Win	@6.00	17.4%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.80	55.3%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@1.91	44.7%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.80	59.0%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.11	41.0%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.25	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@4.20	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@3.00	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.44	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Wolves

2W streak 5 unbeaten

Last 5 WWDWW

At home D

Stoke City

1 unbeaten

Last 5 DLLWL

On the road LL

Clean sheets 28% BTTS 43% FTS 37%

Wolves vs Stoke City Team Stats

Wolverhampton Wanderers FC

Position 4

Played 2

Record 1W-1D-0L

Goals F/A 5/3

Avg Goals Scored 2.50

Points 4

Overall Form WWDWW

Home Form D

Home Record 0W-1D-0L

Stoke City FC

Position 20

Played 2

Record 0W-0D-2L

Goals F/A 2/5

Avg Goals Scored 1.00

Overall Form DLLWL

Away Form LL

Away Record 0W-0D-1L

Wolves vs Stoke City Head to Head

2 Home Wins 2 Draws 4 Away Wins

2.4 Avg Goals

5/8 BTTS

4/8 Over 2.5

2025-07-26 Wolves 1-1 Stoke City

2021-07-31 Wolves 1-1 Stoke City

2020-09-17 Wolves 0-1 Stoke City

2017-01-07 Wolves 2-0 Stoke City

2012-04-07 Wolves 1-2 Stoke City

2011-12-17 Wolves 1-2 Stoke City

2011-04-26 Wolves 0-3 Stoke City

2010-08-14 Wolves 2-1 Stoke City

Full Wolves vs Stoke City head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 2-1 9.2%

3-1 7.7%

3-0 6.1%

3-2 4.8%

4-1 4.8%

4-0 3.8%

4-2 3.0%

5-1 2.4%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices

Over 1.5 goals Smart 85% @1.26 Pinnacle
Raul Jimenez 1+ shots on target 83% @1.20 Bet365
Under 12.5 corners Smart 83% @1.29 Superbet
Over 2.5 cards 79% @1.31 Pinnacle
Adam Armstrong 1+ shots on target 82% @1.22 Bet365

Combined 3.12 · £5 returns £15.59

Market singles 12 priced markets

Over 1.5 goals 85% @1.26 Pinnacle
Under 2.5 second half goals 85% @1.26 Betano
Stoke City under 1.5 goals 84% @1.22 10Bet
Over 8 corners 84% @1.19 1xBet
Hee-Chan Hwang 2+ shots 83% @1.20 Bet365
Nathan Fraser 2+ shots 83% @1.20 Bet365
Raul Jimenez 1+ shots on target 83% @1.20 Bet365
Under 12.5 corners 83% @1.29 Superbet
Over 21.5 total shots (on + off target) 83% @1.21 Betano
Adam Armstrong 1+ shots on target 82% @1.22 Bet365
Wolves over 4.5 corners 81% @1.37 Superbet
Stoke City over 2.5 corners 81% @1.37 Unibet

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Wolves v Stoke City builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 81% @ 1.23
2 Over 1.5 Goals 78% @ 1.29

@1.59 £10 returns £15.85

View full breakdown

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The record

70%

verified hit rate across 837 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Wolves vs Stoke City: FAQs

Who will win Wolves vs Stoke City?

Our model makes Wolves the favourite with a 58.0% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Wolves vs Stoke City?

Best available odds: Wolves @ 1.50, Draw @ 4.20, Stoke City @ 6.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Wolves vs Stoke City kick off?

Wolves vs Stoke City kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 12:30 in the Championship.

Will both teams score in Wolves vs Stoke City?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 55.3% probability.

Wolves vs Stoke City prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Wolves to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.