Derby vs Swansea Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Derby have lost their last two; Swansea have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Championship tie.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Derby create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Swansea create 1.4 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Derby average 1.4 goals per game and Swansea manage 1.4. Combined that's just 2.8. We make it only 8% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams score in 65% of Derby's home games and 48% of Swansea's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Derby Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Swansea Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Derby vs Swansea kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 12:30 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.