Toulouse vs Lille Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Toulouse (15th, 0 pts) face the unenviable task of hosting in-form Lille (3rd, 3 pts). The gap in quality should tell, but home advantage can be a great leveller.
Lille are no pushovers away from home. W1 D0 L0 from 1 away trips, scoring 2.0 per game on the road. Toulouse (W0 D0 L1 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. Toulouse's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. Season-long, Lille average 3.0 points per game compared to Toulouse's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. One thing to keep in mind about Toulouse. They're scoring 1.3 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.0. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.4), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. The gap in chance quality is clear: Lille come out at +0.9 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.4. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Toulouse create chances worth 1.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Lille create 1.5 (giving up 0.6) for a balance of +0.9. On the quality of chances, Lille look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Toulouse are scoring 1.3 goals a game off chances worth just 1.0. That's +0.4 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off.
Toulouse average 1.3 goals per game and Lille manage 2.0. Combined that's just 3.3. We make it only 36% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Clean sheets are a feature here. Both teams score in only 41% of Toulouse's home games and 29% of Lille's away fixtures.
Lille are similarly well-balanced. 2.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
In the last 10 meetings: Toulouse have won 2, Lille 7, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 3.0 goals per game. 8 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Toulouse 0-4 Lille, Lille 2-1 Toulouse, Toulouse 1-2 Lille, Lille 2-1 Toulouse.
Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (11%) and 0-2 (11%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Toulouse Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Lille Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Toulouse vs Lille kicks off on Thursday 3 September 2026 at 19:45 in the Ligue 1.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 29.3% probability.