Lyon vs Auxerre Predictions & Odds
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Lyon have lost their last two; Auxerre have won three straight. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Ligue 1 tie.
Both sides are prolific in front of goal. Lyon average 2.0 per game and Auxerre chip in with 2.3. Expect an open, attacking contest. Auxerre could be in for a similar cool-off. 2.3 goals a game against chance quality worth only 0.9. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much. The gap in chance quality is clear: Lyon come out at +0.1 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.5. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. A concern for Auxerre: they're giving up chances worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.5 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Lyon create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Auxerre create 0.9 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.5. The underlying numbers clearly favour Lyon. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Auxerre are also scoring more than their chances suggest (2.3 goals vs chance quality of 0.9). Both runs could cool off at once. Lyon are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 1.9 a game over the last 5 vs 1.6 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove. Auxerre's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 vs 1.5 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Lyon are scoring 2.0 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Auxerre manage 2.3 (2.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring looks unlikely (just 29%). Lyon shut the door in 44% of their games and Auxerre draw a blank in 47% of theirs, so don't be surprised if one side keeps it tight at the back.
Both teams score in 47% of Lyon's home games and 47% of Auxerre's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed. Lyon keep the other side out in 44% of games and Auxerre fail to score 47% of the time. there's a real chance one side keeps it tight at the back.
Lyon are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 2.5 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Auxerre, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Auxerre have goals in them (2.3 per game) but their record at the back (1.3 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (8%) and 1-1 (7%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Lyon Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Auxerre Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Lyon vs Auxerre kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 18:00 in the Ligue 1.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.