Swansea vs Burnley Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Swansea (8th, 4 pts) host Burnley (18th, 1 pts) in the Championship. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
Swansea will be looking to make home advantage count (W0 D1 L0 at home). Burnley's away record reads W0 D0 L1. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Swansea create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them -0.1 a game on the balance. Burnley create 0.9 (giving up 2.0) for a balance of -1.1. The underlying numbers clearly favour Swansea. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Swansea are scoring 1.0 a game (0.0 of those at home) and Burnley manage 1.5 (1.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 48%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 43%.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 61% of Swansea's home games and 74% of Burnley's away matches.
Burnley travel here with relegation breathing down their neck. At 18th, they can't afford to drop many more points.
Swansea do it the hard way: only 1.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.5 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
In the last 10 meetings: Swansea have won 5, Burnley 5, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 2.1 goals per game. 3 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Swansea 0-2 Burnley, Burnley 1-0 Swansea, Swansea 1-2 Burnley.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Swansea Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Burnley Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Swansea vs Burnley kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 15:00 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 43.0% probability.