Derby vs Birmingham Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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A Championship clash between two sides separated by just 3 places in the table. Derby (16th, 1 pts) and Birmingham (13th, 2 pts) both have plenty to play for.
Birmingham are no pushovers away from home. W1 D1 L0 from 2 away trips, scoring 1.0 per game on the road. Derby (W0 D1 L0 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. Birmingham have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Derby create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Birmingham create 1.2 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of 0.0. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Derby are scoring 1.5 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Birmingham manage 1.0 (1.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 49%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 47%.
Both teams score in 65% of Derby's home games and 48% of Birmingham's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
In the last 10 meetings: Derby have won 5, Birmingham 2, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 3.3 goals per game. 7 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Derby 1-0 Birmingham, Birmingham 1-1 Derby, Derby 2-2 Birmingham.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Derby Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Birmingham Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Derby vs Birmingham kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 12:30 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 46.5% probability.