03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Stevenage Win |
31.7% |
44.4% |
13 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
47.0% |
56.5% |
9 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
42.2% |
49.3% |
7 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🚨
Oxford United have failed to score in 50% of matches
01The read
Analysing Stevenage vs Oxford United: Who Wins?
The model makes Oxford United 39% favourites here. Stevenage carry the 32% upset.
Oxford United slight edge (39%) | Predicted: 0-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Stevenage have taken 7 points from their last five; Oxford United have taken four points from their last four. Form gives little away going into this League One tie.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Oxford United at 39%, but the draw sits at 29%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
😶
Goal Shy
Oxford United fail to score in 50% of their games. They go missing in front of goal far too often
▸ Form & goals
Stevenage average 0.8 goals per game and Oxford United manage 1.5. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it only 42% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 47%.
Both teams score in 39% of Stevenage's home games and 50% of Oxford United's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed. Stevenage keep the other side out in 41% of games and Oxford United fail to score 50% of the time. there's a real chance one side keeps it tight at the back.
▸ Team news & context
In the last 8 meetings: Stevenage have won 1, Oxford United 4, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 3.4 goals per game. 4 of the last 8 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Oxford United 1-1 Stevenage, Stevenage 1-3 Oxford United, Oxford United 1-2 Stevenage.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Stevenage HT
2.90
-
Draw HT
2.05
-
Oxford United HT
3.40
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Oxford United · xG
For: 1.52/g
Against: 1.14/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.42/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Stevenage vs Oxford United Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Stevenage Win |
@2.50
|
31.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.00
|
29.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Oxford United Win |
@2.75
|
39.4% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.80
|
47.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.95
|
53.0% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.10
|
42.2% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.75
|
57.8% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.33
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.28
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Stevenage vs Oxford United Head to Head
1 Home Wins
3 Draws
4 Away Wins
3.4
Avg Goals
6/8
BTTS
4/8
Over 2.5
2024-04-19
Stevenage 1-1 Oxford United
2023-09-30
Stevenage 1-3 Oxford United
2021-10-05
Stevenage 2-1 Oxford United
2017-08-29
Stevenage 2-6 Oxford United
2016-03-25
Stevenage 1-1 Oxford United
2015-10-31
Stevenage 1-5 Oxford United
2015-01-31
Stevenage 0-2 Oxford United
2014-09-20
Stevenage 0-0 Oxford United
Full Stevenage vs Oxford United head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
12.7%
1-0
10.2%
0-1
9.9%
0-0
7.9%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
6.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 2 second half goals
83%
@1.20
Marathon Bet
-
Stevenage under 7.5 corners
83%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Under 12 corners
83%
@1.20
1xBet
-
Stevenage over 3.5 corners
83%
@1.28
Superbet
-
Under 3.5 goals
83%
@1.28
Betano
-
Over 7.5 corners
82%
@1.32
Superbet
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
81%
@1.30
William Hill
-
Oxford United under 5.5 corners
80%
@1.36
1xBet
-
Stevenage or Oxford United (double chance)
79%
@1.36
Bet365
-
Stevenage over 0.5 goals
79%
@1.32
Pinnacle
-
Stevenage or Draw (double chance)
77%
@1.45
Betano
-
Over 1.5 goals
76%
@1.36
10Bet
Build a slip from these markets →