03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Both Teams to Score |
49.0% |
58.8% |
10 pts under
|
| Sevilla Win |
25.0% |
32.7% |
8 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
50.2% |
53.5% |
3 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 8.5 Match Corners
42% (model)
Corners: Sevilla avg 3.0 for/4.0 against, Atletico Madrid avg 4.3 for/4.8 against → expected 8.1 match corners
-
Over 4.5 Match Cards
79% (model)
Cards: Sevilla avg 3.8/game, Atletico Madrid avg 2.8/game → expected 6.6 match cards
-
Over 24.5 Match Fouls
41% (model)
Fouls: Sevilla avg 12.9/game, Atletico Madrid avg 10.7/game → expected 23.5 match fouls
-
Over 22.5 Match Shots
16% (model)
Shots: Sevilla avg 5.4/game, Atletico Madrid avg 12.8/game → expected 18.2 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Analysing Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid: Who Wins?
Sevilla 25%, the draw 29%, Atletico Madrid 46%. That's the shape of this one.
Atletico Madrid slight edge (46%) | Predicted: 1-2
Confidence
★★★★★
Sevilla have won three of their last five; Atletico Madrid have won three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this La Liga tie.
Our verdict
Too close to call with any conviction. Atletico Madrid edge it at 46% but a draw (29%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
📊
H2H Favours Away
Atletico Madrid have won 7 of the last 10 encounters. They have a psychological edge
▸ Form & goals
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Sevilla create chances worth 0.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them -0.1 a game on the balance. Atletico Madrid create 1.5 (giving up 1.9) for a balance of -0.4. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Sevilla are scoring 2.5 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Atletico Madrid manage 1.5 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%. Two or more goals at @1.28 is a steadier alternative for accas.
Both teams score in 58% of Sevilla's home games and 58% of Atletico Madrid's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
The stakes are high for Sevilla at this stage of the season. Their fans will expect a performance, and the home support will be vocal in driving them on. Atletico Madrid face a tough afternoon.
Sevilla are all-out attack: 2.5 goals a game, but they leak 1.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Atletico Madrid, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
In the last 10 meetings: Sevilla have won 2, Atletico Madrid 7, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 3.0 goals per game. 5 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Sevilla 2-1 Atletico Madrid, Atletico Madrid 3-0 Sevilla, Sevilla 1-2 Atletico Madrid, Atletico Madrid 4-3 Sevilla.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (6%) and 0-1 (5%).
First Half Result
-
Sevilla HT
3.90
-
Draw HT
2.15
-
Atletico Madrid HT
2.62
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Sevilla · xG
For: 0.92/g
Against: 1.03/g
📊 Atletico Madrid · xG
For: 1.72/g
Against: 1.68/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Sevilla Win |
@3.40
|
25.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.30
|
29.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Atletico Madrid Win |
@2.10
|
45.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.75
|
49.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.00
|
51.0% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.91
|
50.2% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.94
|
49.8% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.28
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.35
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Team Stats
Sevilla FC
Position
3
Played
2
Record
2W-0D-0L
Goals F/A
5/2
Avg Goals Scored
2.50
Points
6
Overall Form
WWLLW
Home Form
WLWW
Home Record
1W-0D-0L
Atletico Madrid
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Head to Head
2 Home Wins
1 Draws
7 Away Wins
3.0
Avg Goals
5/10
BTTS
5/10
Over 2.5
2026-04-11
Sevilla 2-1 Atletico Madrid
2025-11-01
Sevilla 0-3 Atletico Madrid
2025-04-06
Sevilla 1-2 Atletico Madrid
2024-12-08
Sevilla 3-4 Atletico Madrid
2024-02-11
Sevilla 1-0 Atletico Madrid
2024-01-25
Sevilla 0-1 Atletico Madrid
2023-12-23
Sevilla 0-1 Atletico Madrid
2023-08-06
Sevilla 1-1 Atletico Madrid
2023-03-04
Sevilla 1-6 Atletico Madrid
2022-10-01
Sevilla 0-2 Atletico Madrid
Full Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
6.0%
0-1
5.0%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
2.5%
2-3
2.4%
0-3
1.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Over 1.5 goals
79%
@1.31
Betano
-
Sevilla under 6.5 corners
Smart
83%
@1.26
Unibet
-
Over 3.5 cards
81%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Alexander Sorloth 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Julian Alvarez 1+ shots on target
74%
@1.36
Bet365
Combined 3.65
· £5 returns
£18.24
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
85%
@1.26
Superbet
-
Joan Jordan 1+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Carlos Martin 2+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Sevilla over 3 corners
84%
@1.19
1xBet
-
Atletico Madrid over 0.5 goals
83%
@1.22
10Bet
-
Atletico Madrid over 3 corners
83%
@1.20
1xBet
-
Sevilla under 6.5 corners
83%
@1.26
Unibet
-
Atletico Madrid under 6.5 corners
82%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Over 3.5 cards
81%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Under 10.5 total shots (on + off target)
81%
@1.23
Unibet
-
Under 11.5 corners
81%
@1.35
Unibet
-
Sevilla or Atletico Madrid (double chance)
80%
@1.34
1xBet
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