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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County Win | 30.1% | 41.7% | 12 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49.0% | 53.2% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
The key duel: Rochdale's attack against Newport County's back line.
A League Two fixture between Newport County and Rochdale. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Newport County will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Rochdale travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Rochdale edge it at 42% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Newport County average 1.3 goals per game and Rochdale manage 0.0. Combined that's just 1.3. We make it only 49% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Rochdale prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Newport County against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Newport County Win | @2.50 | 30.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 27.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Rochdale Win | @2.50 | 42.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.96 | 49.0% | Casumo |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.77 | 51.0% | Casumo |
Our model makes Rochdale the favourite with a 42.2% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Newport County @ 2.50, Draw @ 3.25, Rochdale @ 2.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Newport County vs Rochdale kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 12:30 in the League Two.
Our top prediction is Rochdale to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.