03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| PSV Eindhoven Win |
62.7% |
74.1% |
11 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
58.4% |
66.7% |
8 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🔥
PSV Eindhoven are on a 3-game winning streak
01The read
PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk: Match Preview & Prediction
PSV Eindhoven 63%, the draw 22%, Shakhtar Donetsk 15%. That's the shape of this one.
PSV Eindhoven to win (63%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
PSV Eindhoven have won three straight; Shakhtar Donetsk have lost their last two. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Champions League tie.
Our verdict
PSV Eindhoven shade it at 63%, though Shakhtar Donetsk won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing PSV Eindhoven with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.
Our pick
Our PickPSV Eindhoven to win at @1.40. Model probability 63% vs implied 71%. The market is 9pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Key facts
📉
Cold Run
Shakhtar Donetsk have lost their last 2. Confidence in that dressing room will be low
🔥
Hot Streak
PSV Eindhoven have won 3 in a row. Momentum is real
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 100% of PSV Eindhoven's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 58% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. PSV Eindhoven are scoring 2.0 a game (2.5 of those at home) and Shakhtar Donetsk manage 1.0 (1.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 58%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 42%.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
PSV Eindhoven need points desperately. Sitting 28th in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.
PSV Eindhoven are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 2.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Shakhtar Donetsk, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%) and 3-1 (7%).
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
PSV Eindhoven Win |
@1.40
|
62.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.75
|
21.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Shakhtar Donetsk Win |
@6.50
|
15.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.50
|
58.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.50
|
41.6% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk Team Stats
PSV Eindhoven
Position
28
Played
8
Record
2W-2D-4L
Goals F/A
16/16
Avg Goals Scored
2.00
Points
8
Overall Form
WWWDW
Home Record
1W-0D-3L
Shakhtar Donetsk
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
8.9%
3-1
6.7%
3-2
5.0%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
3.8%
4-2
2.8%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
1.7%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 1 priced markets
-
PSV Eindhoven to win
74%
@1.44
Ladbrokes
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