03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Bayern Munich Win |
72.6% |
89.3% |
17 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
80.1% |
85.5% |
5 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🎯
Both teams scored in 71% of Bayern Munich home games
🔥
Bayern Munich are on a 3-game winning streak
01The read
Bayern Munich vs Bodø/Glimt: Can the Hosts Deliver?
Bayern Munich 73%, the draw 14%, Bodø/Glimt 14%. That's the shape of this one.
Bayern Munich to win (73%) | Three or more goals likely (80%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Bayern Munich at @1.17 for this Champions League tie, with Bodø/Glimt out at @13.00.
Our verdict
Bayern Munich to win at 73%. Every metric we track (form, league position, home/away splits, the quality of chances) points the same way. About as clear as it gets today.
Our pick
Our PickBayern Munich to win at @1.17. Model probability 73% vs implied 85%. The market is 13pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Key facts
🔥
Hot Streak
Bayern Munich have won 3 in a row. Momentum is real
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 65% of Bayern Munich's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Bayern Munich are scoring 3.3 a game (3.3 of those at home) and Bodø/Glimt manage 0.0 (0.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 80%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Bayern Munich are all-out attack: 3.3 goals a game, but they leak 2.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Bodø/Glimt, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Bodø/Glimt prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Bayern Munich against this setup.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (10%) and 3-0 (5%).
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Bayern Munich · xG
For: 3.03/g
Against: 1.75/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.37/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Bayern Munich vs Bodø/Glimt Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Bayern Munich Win |
@1.17
|
72.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@8.00
|
13.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Bodø/Glimt Win |
@13.00
|
13.8% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.17
|
80.1% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@5.00
|
19.9% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.6%
3-0
5.3%
3-1
5.3%
3-2
2.6%
4-0
2.2%
4-1
2.2%
4-2
1.1%